Vaccine Queue Calculator for Scotland

About the Vaccine Queue Calculator for Scotland

The Vaccine Queue Calculator for Scotland received its last update in August 2021 and is no longer regularly maintained. Nevertheless, it remains a thorough simulation of the country’s vaccination prioritisation scheme based on the official UK‑wide priority groups that Scotland adopted. By considering your age, occupation, health status, and vulnerability, this Scottish vaccine priority calculator gives a free estimate of your COVID queue position online and helps answer the crucial question “When will I get the COVID vaccine in Scotland?”.

Since the outbreak, COVID‑19 has claimed over 5,000 lives in Scotland and caused severe economic disruption globally. Multiple manufacturers – Pfizer‑BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, and others – raced to develop effective shots. Scotland began its vaccination programme on 8 December 2020 when a nurse at Edinburgh’s Western General Hospital received the first approved vaccine. That milestone signalled the beginning of the end of the acute phase, but also raised many practical questions about who would be vaccinated when. The calculator was built to answer those questions.

The tool follows the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) priority list, which the Scottish government implemented. It also uses the average vaccination rate and an assumed vaccine uptake rate to estimate your position in the Scotland vaccination queue and the expected waiting period.

Priority Groups

The rollout was split into two phases. Phase 1 focused on saving lives and preventing hospitalisations by targeting the oldest and most vulnerable people first. Phase 2 used age as the sole criterion for speed and simplicity.

Phase 1 Priority Groups

Priority	Groups
1	Residents in care homes for older adults and their carers
2	All people aged 80 years and over; frontline health and social care workers
3	All people aged 75 years and over
4	All people aged 70 years and over; clinically extremely vulnerable individuals
5	All people aged 65 years and over
6	People aged 16–64 with underlying health conditions that increase risk of serious disease and mortality; unpaid carers (receiving carer’s allowance or the main carer of an elderly or disabled person)
7	All people aged 60 years and over
8	All people aged 55 years and over
9	All people aged 50 years and over

The target for completing Phase 1 was early May 2021.

Phase 2 Priority Groups

Priority	Age band
10	40–49 years
11	30–39 years
12	18–29 years

Phase 2 aimed for completion by the end of July 2021.

Classification Details

The calculator distinguishes between clinically extremely vulnerable persons (group 4) and those with underlying health conditions (group 6). Correct classification improves accuracy.

Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (CEV)

Individuals who were advised to shield during lockdown automatically qualify. Key conditions include:

• Solid organ transplant recipients.
• Specific cancers: active chemotherapy, radical radiotherapy for lung cancer, blood or bone‑marrow cancers (leukaemia, lymphoma, myeloma) at any treatment stage, immunotherapy or antibody treatments, targeted therapies affecting the immune system (e.g., protein‑kinase inhibitors, PARP inhibitors), and bone‑marrow or stem‑cell transplant within the past six months (or ongoing immunosuppression).
• Severe respiratory conditions: cystic fibrosis, severe asthma, severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).
• Rare diseases raising infection risk: severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID), homozygous sickle cell disease.
• Immunosuppression therapies that significantly increase infection risk.
• Asplenia (absence of spleen) or splenic dysfunction.
• Adults with Down’s syndrome.
• Chronic kidney disease stage 5 (dialysis).
• Pregnancy with significant heart disease (congenital or acquired).
• Other individuals deemed CEV by their GP or hospital consultant based on clinical judgment.

Underlying Health Conditions (Group 6)

People aged 16–64 with any of the following fall into priority group 6:

• Chronic respiratory disease (COPD, cystic fibrosis, severe asthma)
• Chronic heart disease (including vascular disease)
• Chronic kidney disease
• Chronic liver disease
• Chronic neurological disease (including epilepsy)
• Down’s syndrome
• Severe or profound learning disability (on the GP’s learning disability register)
• Diabetes (type 1 and type 2)
• Solid‑organ, bone‑marrow or stem‑cell transplant recipients
• Specific cancers (leukaemia, lymphoma, myeloma, etc.)
• Stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA)
• Neurological or muscle‑wasting conditions
• Immunosuppression due to disease (e.g., HIV) or treatment
• Asplenia or splenic dysfunction (e.g., sickle cell disease, removed spleen)
• Morbid obesity (body mass index ≥ 40 kg/m²)
• Severe mental illness

The severity of the condition may affect eligibility; consult your GP for clarification.

Pregnancy and Breastfeeding

Updated guidance (April 2021) allows pregnant women and those planning pregnancy within three months to receive mRNA vaccines (Pfizer‑BioNTech or Moderna). This change followed safety data from over 90,000 pregnant women vaccinated in the United States with no raised concerns. Breastfeeding women can be offered either Pfizer‑BioNTech or AstraZeneca; non‑live vaccines are generally considered safe, though specific data for COVID‑19 vaccines are limited. Recipients should be made aware of this information before consent.

Children

Routine vaccination is not recommended for individuals under 16. Exceptions are made only after a full risk‑benefit assessment for those at very high risk of exposure and severe outcomes. This recommendation may change as more paediatric trial data become available.

How to Use the Calculator

To estimate your queue position:

1. Enter your age (16–120). Older age normally means earlier vaccination.
2. Indicate if you live or work in a care home for older adults – placing you in the top priority group.
3. Tell if you are pregnant or planning pregnancy within three months. This affects vaccine type but not priority order.
4. Confirm if you are a frontline health or social care worker (e.g., nurse, doctor, care assistant). This group receives high priority.
5. Say whether you are clinically extremely vulnerable – i.e., you were asked to shield or have a CEV‑qualifying condition.
6. Say whether you have an underlying health condition from the list above.

After answering, the tool displays:

• The minimum and maximum number of people ahead of you in the queue.
• The estimated date (or time range) for your first dose and second dose.
• Your priority group number (if applicable).

All calculations depend on the selected vaccination rate and uptake assumptions.

Adjusting Vaccination Parameters

In the Rollout of vaccines section you can customise:

• Vaccination rate: Choose the Scottish government’s planned rate (400,000 doses per week by late February 2021), the average from the last seven days, or enter a custom number.
• Uptake rate: Default is 74 % (based on the previous year’s flu vaccine uptake for people aged 64 and over). You can increase or decrease this value to explore different scenarios.
• Herd immunity date: In custom mode, you can set a target date for herd immunity (defined as 70 % of adults having received their second dose plus three weeks to develop maximum immunity). The calculator then derives the required vaccination rate to meet that date.

These parameters influence how quickly the queue moves and when you can expect your shots.

Major Updates Applied

The calculator received several refinements to remain aligned with policy changes:

• January 2021: Improved the mathematical model for queue estimation; added display of your priority group.
• February 2021: Groups where actual uptake exceeded the set overall uptake are now considered complete.
• March 2021: Added Phase 2 priority groups (10–12) and revised population size estimates.
• April 2021: Calculations factor in the ratio of first‑ to second‑dose administrations in the preceding week, anticipating a slowdown in first‑dose numbers. Introduced the herd immunity date feature. Updated pregnancy advice to recommend mRNA vaccines.
• May 2021: For priority groups 9 and below, the second‑dose interval was shortened from 12 weeks to 8 weeks.

These changes made the estimates more realistic at the time, though the tool is no longer actively updated.

Important Considerations

This calculator is based solely on the official JCVI priority list and does not account for individual exemptions or exceptional circumstances. Actual vaccination dates may differ due to supply fluctuations, local capacity, and personal factors. If you are unsure about your eligibility, consult your general practitioner.